Pittsburgh at West Virginia
7:00 PM ET, January 30, 2012
West Virginia favored by -7 -110

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5* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host West Virginia in a BIG EAST conference matchup set to tip at 7:00 PM ET. West Virginia is 15-7 for the season and 5-4 in Big East conference play. The Mountaineers have lost two straight road games at St. Johns and at Syracuse this past Saturday and are in seventh place in the 16-team Big East Conference. At 5-4 in conference they can not afford another loss, but they are going to have their hands full tonight against the Pittsburgh Panthers.

Pittsburgh is 13-9 for the season and just 2-7 in conference play putting them into a dire 15th place in the Big East conference. They had lost eight straight games before winning their last two games. In their last game they defeated then No. 10 Georgetown convincingly 72-60 and were favored by one point in that game. Now, if a struggling team is suddenly favored, even by a single point, over a Top-10 ranked team, it clearly points the strong talent that this team possesses.

West Virginia is going to be distracted tonight coming off their last second loss to Syracuse Saturday. In that game, an obvious no-call goal tending play prevented West Virginia from getting a big win over Syracuse. The Mountaineers lost the game 63-31 and easily covered the 9 ½ point spread. Losing a game of this magnitude because of the referees failing to make a proper and clearly obvious call sticks negatively with a team.

Simulator Projections
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by six or fewer points and has a strong opportunity to win this game and rejuvenate their season and chances still for a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will make between 71 to 78% of their free throw attempts and will get between 40 and 44 rebounds in this game. In past games, Pittsburgh is a solid 45-22 ATS when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game since 1997; 53-28 ATS when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997; 12-2 against the money line making 10.1 units per one unit wagered when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game over the last three seasons.

These situations are based on money line trends and show the real possibility for an upset win. The simulator shows that Pittsburgh will score between 67 and 73 points and will get between nine and 13 offensive boards. In past games, Pittsburgh is 7-1 against the money line making 6.0 units per one unit wagered in road games when they grab nine to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last two seasons; 17-3 against the money line making 11.9 units per one unit wagered when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last three seasons.

Rebounding Factors
Both teams are strong rebounding teams, but there are differences that favor Pittsburgh int his game. Both teams rank high nationally in total rebounding, but Pittsburgh is a stronger offensive rebounding team than West Virginia. Pittsburgh ranks eighth nationally getting 13.1 offensive rebounds per game and West Virginia 144th allowing 9.2 offensive boards per game. I strongly believe Pittsburgh will win the boards and will have at least five more offensive boards than West Virginia. This will translate into more second and third chance scoring opportunities for Pittsburgh and the greater this margin becomes, the greater the probability that Pittsburgh will win this game. Take Pittsburgh as a 5* graded play.