Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
8:00 PM, December 3, 2011
Oklahoma State favored by 3 ½ -110

5* graded play on Oklahoma plus the 3 ½ points.

5* graded play on Oklahoma as they take Oklahoma State set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 3, 2011. I will not belabor the point. Oklahoma is the better team and they have the better defensive matchups in this game.

Team Rankings
Let’s first take a look at the FBS team rankings and we see generally two teams with similar characteristics. The difference is evident with the Sooner possessing the better run defense.

The Oklahoma Sooners rank third in the FBS gaining 176 passing yards per game, 41st gaining 172.4 rushing yards per game, and eighth scoring 43.0 points per game, 86th allowing 246.0 passing yards per game, 30th allowing 127.0 rushing yards per game, and 28th allowing 20.8 points per game.

Oklahoma State ranks second in the FBS gaining 402 passing yards per game, 54th gaining 161 rushing yards per game, second scoring 49.8 points per game, 100th allowing 267.0 passing yards per game, 87th allowing 187 rushing yards per game, and 64th allowing 27.3 points per game.

Oklahoma’s TWO losses
The sooner have had two very poor games this season. They lost at home to Texas Tech in a wild game and at Baylor in a near equally wild affair. In both games, the defense was exploited with Texas tech gaining 452 passing yards on 52 attempts with 34 completions. Baylor lit them up for 485 passing yards on 35 attempts and just 22 completions.

In both games the deep middle was targeted and many times the Sooners failed to provided any over the top help on deep vertical routes. Oklahoma had difficulty getting lineup up before the snap against Baylor and they suffered the consequences. The Sooners were caught out of position and had more than a dozen blown assignments.

The Sooners safety Javon Harris took significant heat during that game and in the printed materials post game. Yet, it was not nearly all his fault. I can promise you that the deep middle will be covered and that if the Cowboys target Harris they will pay the price. Video study is a powerful thing and certainly the Cowboys looked at the Baylor films with great interest. However, they also know that Oklahoma will make the necessary corrections and the advantages that Baylor enjoyed will not be available to exploit for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are arguably the best passing team in the country, but it will be their inability run the ball that will be their demise in this game. Oklahoma will not have to bring eight men into the box to stop the run as it had to against Baylor. The Sooners can sit in underneath man zones knowing they help over the top. Further, I strongly believe that the Sooners will work with a cover-2 defensive foundation and vary that look pre-snap. This will make the initial read far more difficult for Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden to make and his decisions will be far tougher than any game he has played this season.

Justin Blackmon
I want too make this point painfully clear. I am not suggesting in any way, shape, or form, that the Sooner defense is going to pitch a shutout. I do believe they have the ability and personnel to keep Oklahoma Stat to under 28 points and this is a key pivotal point that I will soon outline.

Blackmon is one of the best receivers in the country and he will be matched up against the Sooners bet cover corner in Jamell Flemming. Blackmon is 6-foot-1, 215 pounds and has a very long catching radius and great hands. He is a nightmare for nearly all corners in the country to defend. I do believe that Fleming has the physical strength to bring Blackmon down in space. Fleming is extremely quick and any separation that Blackmon will initially get from him, will be quickly closed once the ball is in the air. Fleming’s job and it is a very important one, is to make certain he tackles well and does let Blackmon break a tackle and get into space where he has made so many huge plays this year for the Cowboys. So, Blackmon may get more than 10 receptions in this game, but Fleming and the Sooner defense will minimize his yards after the catch and that will be a monumental factor in the Sooners winning this game.

Take the Oklahoma Sooners.